Oil prices would tumble some more. The US just lifted sanctions on Iran and Iran is eager to pump her oil into the world market. Before the end of February, the oil could go down to $20 or even as low as $5 per barrel.
The oil cabals holding Nigeria down would then make a decision as to whether Nigeria is still viable to milk some more or not. They would decide if it is time for all man for himself and God for all of us, or if they can leave Nigeria alone for real reformers to take over from the scratch. Oil “oyel” is the only thing holding Nigeria together. The Hausa-Fulani oligarchy would never let go of the Nigeria fiefdom handed to them by the colonial masters unless their is no more oil to explore. Shake your head all you want but that is the truth. The corruption we talk about is nothing but about oil. Those that partitioned Nigeria’s oil block among themselves would not let go unless the oil finishes or greatly diminishes in value. Their divide and rule would end when oil wealth disappears.
Also, Nigeria is too big, “big for nothing”, too diverse, too tribal, built on lies and deceits, and incapable of being a nation. The primordial sentiment is too high to sustain any meaningful development. We cannot be a nation. Period. It took us over 50 years to figure out that Nigeria cannot be a nation. We are just deceiving ourselves and living in denials.
The earlier we tell ourselves the truth, stop pretending and give total separation, confederation or true federalism a chance the better. Come another 50 years from now when our kids would be getting ready to retire, Nigeria as presently constituted would still be in diapers because we are treating the symptoms while not attempting to cure the disease.
I don’t share the hope for a united Nigeria. I used to share that burning passion of one united and prosperous Nigeria. But not anymore. Reality has taken over my idealism. One Nigeria is an utopia just like the “One USSR”. It cannot work. The former Soviet Union discovered their folly and peacefully separated and those republics are thriving as independent nations away from the clutches of Russia.
Albert Einstein defined insanity as doing the thing over and over again and expecting a different result. If for 50 years we have been tinkering Nigeria and praying that miracle would happen without each party coming to the table as equals, I am not of that school of thought.
Nigeria’s problems are legion, for they are many. If the fundamental problems are not tackled, we are wasting our time 4 year to 8 years to 20 years to 50 years. You cannot forge a union by force. The component units must agree to live as one and the terms of the union must be agreed upon by the parties without any “no go areas”.
You can’t force a marriage especially when one party feels like he does not belong. It doesn’t work. It works for people who are comfortable with the status quo. It works for people who ruined Nigeria and their accomplices and boot lickers scattered around Nigeria.